Feb round up
| Account Totals | |
| Banking | $49,705.62 |
| Credit Cards | $0.00 |
| Investment | $32,676.82 |
| Total Value | $82,382.44 |
| Account Totals | |
| Banking | $49,705.62 |
| Credit Cards | $0.00 |
| Investment | $32,676.82 |
| Total Value | $82,382.44 |
Good News!
Debt is "in." Finally, no more shame, guilt or anxiety.
I'm not saying that you can feel good about being in the hole, but the fact is, debt is not your dirty little secret -- anymore. With Bankrate reporting consumer debt at nearly $2.2 trillion (and fast approaching the government's $8 trillion I.O.U.), who doesn't have debt?
So we're all in the same club, but togetherness won't make us wealthy -- or -- happy. Maybe it's time to change the status quo? (The government can't afford to bale us out.)
To learn more about our "in" crowd? Read or "post" on:
· Bankrate's Special on Debt
· The Next Generation Begins in Debt (blog)
· Student Debt Is the Norm
For advice on improving your financial situation, think of the best-case scenario for your situation. (Except the big lotto dream) A new job? Learning a little discipline? What's the one change you could go for that would have the biggest impact on your current situation.
For me, one best-case scenario is winning a free money makeover from an expert. To learn who's giving these away, come back for the next posting.
Next Blog: Free Money Makeovers from the Experts
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Debt, Dollars & Sense Blog: Empty Pockets Welcome
If you're looking to get rid of debt and accumulate more dollars -- then this is the blog for you. I'm not going to tell you how to change your money situation, but I can help you find the answers to your questions. Just ask them.
It's that simple, I swear.
Too bashful? Sign up for e-mail alerts so you don't miss a topic that speaks to your situation.
You can expect to learn insider information such as the sneaky moves of credit card companies and how the experts bank online.
But the first several entries focus on getting out of debt. If you're just now getting tackling this endeavor, please find them in the archives. You'll find great free or low cost resources, including free money makeovers.
You can get a bang for you debt buck!
We are glad to tell you good news. Sam Colins, our CEO, has just returned from a business trip dedicated to making new contacts on investments into research and development of new medicines, especially those preventing birds flue virus.goes on to say...
Our business partners are willing to continue co-operation and, for that reason, we want to allow non-VIP investors in this investment opportunity. We would like to learn your opinions on a short-term (approximately 60 business days) placement of your funds. The daily rate will be almost twice as high as the current one, but it will not exceed 6% daily. This is a very high-yield and short-term offer, we have already made substantial investments in this field and have signed several contracts that would allow us to continue our work this and next year.For more on the program details click here
But after all the noise, and almost 1.7 million shares changing hands (4x normal), we ended the day more or less where we started. The small gain of $0.03 was random; had the session ended a minute earlier, it could have meant no gain, or a slight loss.
As for the earnings release itself, and the following call, there were no great surprises. The company hit the earnings expectations for the last quarter right on the head, both for top-line and bottom-line. Guidance for the coming quarter and year is up for revenue, because of the acquisition, and down for EPS, again because of increased acquisition-related expenses. Current EPS guidance is for $0.27 - $0.30 for the year, excluding executive stock options expenses, and a onetime write-off of in process R&D assets from the Compex acquisition. The guidance does, however, reflect all merger-related cash expenses, as well as regular goodwill amortization, and synergies. This base case further assumes that there will be no divestitures of any Compex businesses. This last assumption could easily be violated, as Encore have retained consultants to assist in the evaluation of strategic alternatives regarding certain parts of Compex. To the extent that this would allow the company to convert goodwill back into cash, which might be used to reduce borrowings, it might bring EPS closer to current consensus estimates of $0.32 for the year.
Using the same assumptions as before, the company guided to 2006 revenue of $415million - $425 million, gross margin of 61.5% - 62%,and operating margin of 14.5% to 15% of revenue. All of this is consistent with my investment premise. The fact that inventory only increased marginally, despite an intentional build-up of inventory for new product introductions makes me think that sales are pretty well humming along. During the call, the company also confirmed that initial demand for their new product introductions at least met their expectations.
So, I am in no hurry to sell. The current quarter should bring some more clarity on possible divestitures and sales trends. There is upside potential in both. I remain confident that this company is well-managed, and on an excellent track.
Investments I want...
write a good call option
solid stock with track record of increasing consistently in value on an average of 15+%/year.
own a good rental property with good cashflow (good enough that I don't have to manage it)
It could be neat to have an opportunity to participate in a startup as an "Angel Investor"
pays great fixed interest rate or gives me a cheap property
some Penny Stock (stock trading for less than $5.00) that becomes a great company

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I sent NCN an update on thursday before I left on how much debt I have paid off and I was suprised just in my payments last week I paid down 1%…thats not bad in one week. If you haven’t already, check out the No Credit Needed Network it is a great way to get support from those with common goals and its a great way to be inspiration to someone who might be in the same shoes you are. What do you have to lose ? Go ahead and check it out.
I am currently at the SANS 2006 Conference in Orlando and after two days I think my brain is already mush. I am in the SANS +S Trainning Program for the CISSP Certification Exam track. Each day our classes run from 8 in the morning till 7 at night…talk about needing to relax afterwards…I can’t even enjoy what disney world has to offer…so if my posts seem worse than normal. I apolgize…
Very often
Letters of Credit are used as collateral for
Large Project financing. The main concern is that the clients
have the
ability to pay for the instrument, and to protect it with an acceptable
third party Bank or Insurance
Company commitment to take out the LC before its maturity, with payoff
or permanent financing. This is NOT a loan program.
We only provide the instrument upon which Developers and/or Projects
can borrow. 
The newest crop of business-themed board and card games caters to hard-core capitalists--the greedier the better. Some square players against each other in the pits of the stock market. Others demand strategic thinking to build vast real estate empires. Want to smuggle controlled substances during Prohibition? You can do that, too.
Kris Frieswick of The Boston Globe Magazine published an analysis of Fidelity Investments on February 19. There are a couple of angles Frieswick explores -- ranging from Fidelity's migration of offices and employees to other parts of the country (its headquarters is in Boston) to the history of the Johnson ...
Read more news like this from PFBlog Network, the personal finance bloggers' network..
It's easy to neglect setting up a retirement plan when you own your own business. With so many existing administrative tasks--payroll taxes, insurance benefits, bookkeeping--adding one more benefit may seem overwhelming.
But retirement creeps up on you much faster than you'd expect. Setting up a retirement plan is essential--and the sooner you do it, the better.
This podcast is about how to make money through multiple streams of income without actually having a job. This is a high-level overview of the general process and mindset involved in generating passive income streams. It would take a lot more than a 15-20 minute podcast to share all the exact implementation details. But with the right mindset, you’ll be able to figure out the details over time.
It’s been a short week, with the markets closed for Presidents Day on Monday. The only purchase of the week came today with Komag. We haven’t sold anything yet, and I suspect that we won’t for some time.
So this is what the portfolio looks like, today:
| Company | Ticker | Date Bought | Cost Basis | Last Closing Price | Return % |
| Autoliv | ALV | 1/24/2006 | $49.05 | $53.20 | 8.46% |
| Encore Medical | ENMC | 2/3/2006 | $5.41 | $6.01 | 10.85% |
| Knoll, Inc. | KNL | 2/14/2006 | $19.15 | $19.65 | 2.61% |
| Komag Inc. | KOMG | 2/24/2006 | $46.95 | $46.88 | -0.15% |
The portfolio is up 5.7%, compared to the S&P being up 2.16%. A couple of notes about that:
The modified Dietz return for the portfolio is 10.7%.
Finally, astute readers may have noticed two things: First, so far I seem to have bought the stocks in perfect alphabetical order. Secondly, I slid back a bit compared to last week. To both of those, I shrug my shoulders.
I just bought 1,000 shares @ $46.95.
Volume is down quite a bit, compared to the past two days. I suppose that whichever big holders were selling, got done with it.
One of the many stock screens I keep tinkering with is focused on income momentum. This is a screen that has excellent backtesting results, and one that has proved very effective for me over time. Recently, it dredged up a number of companies in the storage devices segment.
It’s been a decades-old trend for storage capacity per drive to roughly double every year, while cost per megabyte (…gigabyte,…terabyte) keeps going down, leaving the price per drive approximately where it was. Lately, demand has gotten an added boost from portable media players, digital video cameras, DVRs (TiVo, and the like), game consoles, and even cell phones. At the same time, demand for ever-higher capacity, especially in computer hard drives, has outrun the improvements in areal density. Consequently, higher-capacity hard drives are increasingly featuring 2, 3, or 4 disk platters. Between an increasing number of drives per PC and a growing number of disks per drive, the total number of disks per PC has grown from about 2 in 2002 to 2.8, today. All of this is excellent news for Komag (KOMG), who make these platters for many of the largest drive manufacturers.
In essence, blank aluminum disks (the “substrate”) are plated with Nickel alloy and polished, before applying several exremely thin layers of magnetic and non-magnetic material, which hold the data. In the end the disks get carbon sealed and lubricated, before being shipped off to the drive manufacturer. Modern disk platters deliver data at areal densities of up to 100GB/square inch. This tightly packed information has to be picked up by the read head “gliding” at a distance of 0.2 millionth of an inch over a disk that spins at up to 15,000 rpm. It’s obvious that the slightest surface imperfections would render the disk unusable. What all this means is that disk platters are not a commodity item that just any manufacturer could churn out wth some modest investment. In fact, most of the major hard disk manufacturers in the world are Komag’s clients: Seagate, Hitachi, Western Digital, and Maxtor (to be bought by Seagate).
So, what’s the outlook for Komag? Well, there should be plenty of gas left in the tank: A recent NY Times article pegged the current penetration of DVRs at 7.2% of U.S. households; other industrialized nations presumably trail that figure. The same article puts the number of U.S. households with TVs at 110 million, compared with only 70 million households that have a PC (as of 2003, per U.S. Census). Clearly, if DVRs become ubiquitous, the benefit for the storage industry will be enormous. Microsoft’s recently introduced Xbox 360 ships with a hard drive (the stripped down Xbox 360 Core System has none), and there are reports that Sony’s next gaming console, the Playstation 3, will also have a built-in hard drive. What kind of volume would that be? We don’t know, but Sony sold over 100 million of the predecessor PS2 consoles in just 5 years. Add to that the demand for high capacity iPods, and their likes, and it’s easy to imagine that the storage business should be good for some continuing growth in the coming years. As for Komag, the company has been running at flat-out 100% of capacity in both of the most recent quarters. In order to take advantage of expected demand growth, Komag are embarking on a substantial capacity development program. The total capacity is expected to grow from currently 31 million platters per quarter to over 40 million platters per quarter by the end of 2006. But even with added supply, a recent Komag investor presentation projects a cumulative supply shortfall of 21 million to 117 million platters for 2006; under the base scenario, the supply shortage would amount to over 9% of total production. Not surprisingly, Western Digital have alrady preordered (and prepaid!) incremental supply from the factory expansion.
From a financial standpoint, Komag is as healthy as ever. In 2001 the company got in trouble, when the last tech boom ended. All production in the U. S. was shut down to bring costs and capacity in line with demand that was 20% below that of 2000. Despite the effort, the compay had to file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in August of 2001. Less than a year later, the company emerged with its liabilities reduced by 2/3. Proceeds from a secondary stock offering in 2004 were used to further cut the long-term debt load to its current level of $80.5 million. At this point, the company has a comfortable 16% debt-to-capital ratio, and 86x interest coverage.
As mentioned in the beginning, I really like the fact that Komag have been able to dramatically increase their profitability over the past year. 5Q2005 gross margin was 28%, compared to 23% during 4Q2004. Net margin improved from 12% to 18% over the same period. Revenue has been up for 6 consecutive quarters, and with the capacity increases expected to come online over the balance of this year, that string is looking to continue. Komag currently trades at a trailing P/E excl. extraordinary items of 13.75, a sales multiple of 2.13 and a cash flow multiple of just under 14. With that, they sit between the disk manufacturing equipment makers, such as Intevac, or the Swiss firm Unaxis, which have the most exposure to the cyclicality of the storage market (Intevac currently trades at a P/E of just under 29, and multiples of 3.2x sales and 28x cash flow), and the drive manufacturers, who are somewhat less volatile and currently trade at generally lower multiples (WDC: P/E 17.9, 1.3x sales, 11.8x c/f; STX: P/E 12.55, 1.5x sales, 8.45x c/f). It’s hard to compare Komag to any peers, since there really aren’t any. Komag is the only independent thin-film media manufacturer in Northamerica. A number of Asian competitors exist: Fuji Electric, Hoya, and Showa Denko. Comparing Japanese valuations to American ones is tricky, since accounting standards differ, as do returns on competing (non-equity) investment opportunities. Making matters worse, all three Japanese competitors are fairly diversified conglomerates, for whom the disks and disk substrates are only a small portion of the business. For what it’s worth, Hoya trades at 5.9x sales and a P/E of 26, and Showa Denko is changing hands at 0.69x sales and a P/E of almost 36.
If there’s a fly in the ointment, it would be the fact that Komag will soon derive 45% of its revenue from a single customer (Seagate, incl. Maxtor), and 95% of their sales come from the top 3 customers (adding Hitachi and Western Digital). This will no doubt limit Komag’s negotiating leverage during times of oversupply. This is doubly true, since most drive manufacturers (WDC are the exception) have their own thin-film media production, from which they derive roughly half of their total disk supply. Only the demand that cannot be met by internal sources is contracted out to “independent” disk manufacturers such as Komag. At the first indication that oversupply conditions may emerge, it would be time to sell KOMG stock. The stock price develoment of real estate builders over the past few months demonstrates Wall Street’s disregard for current performance, if it is not matched by a strong outlook.
But for now, given Komag’s excellent financial situation, and the healthy anticipated demand for storage, this one looks like a winner. If you prefer the drive manufacturers, take a look at Seagate (STX); they have recently been eclipsed by Western Digital, whose Raptor drives have been the performance leaders for the past couple of years. But Seagate is a rock-solid company, with strong research and strong products. If they can manage the integration of Maxtor, they should be golden.
On a tactical note, the entire storage sector got into a funk on Tuesday: STX is down 6.5% since Monday’s close, WDC is off 6.7%, and KOMG dropped 7.2%. No obvious reason has emerged so far, except that possibly the tepid guidance issued by Dell, last Thursday, is working itself through the system. At this point I see this weakness as temporary, and a buying opportunity. Still, take a careful look at the market before jumping in. Clarification should come no later than March 7th, when KOMG will hold their Analyst & Investor Day in Santa Clara. Unfortunately, it’s not open for retail investors, but it’ll at least be webcast.
There will be a lot of Chiquita headlines about slipping on banana peels, tomorrow. And, boy, am I glad I pulled out of the buy recommendation on this stock.
Unfavorable currency translations, hurricane damage, a big acquisition of a low-to-no-margin business, and the ever-entertaining EU tariff regime: It all conspired to make Chiquita’s quarter a bad one. Revenue was 5% below expectation (and below last year’s, after adjusting for the Fresh Express acquisition), and the net loss was ($0.45), instead of the expected ($0.01). About the only good news was that European pricing has held up better than expected. Unfortunately, that came at the expense of lower volume, as the substantial incremental advertising spending during the 4th quarter apparently didn’t pay off.
Once the supply situation normalizes, after the replanting of Latin American bananas following last year’s hurricane devastation is complete, whatever price advantage currently exists will be gone. In the meantime, currency effects will weigh on future comparisons, and the cost of the higher EU import tariffs is going to hit the company head-on. Higher than normal expenses for fuel and ship charters are also only partially hedged.
Clearly, management is trying to focus on the improvements in the Fresh Express segment, where volume and prices are going in the right direction. Operating loss of the segment was ($5 million), mostly due to restructuring expenses for two plant closures in the Midwest. That should not affect next year’s costs. But there’s a bunch of debt on the balance sheet that was raised to pay for the acquisition, and most of that is priced at a spread over LIBOR. If interest rates keep going up, it’s going to be a long time, before this acquisition pays off.
Right now, CQB is down 5% in after-hours trading. I don’t see it dropping very much more, since the company is not in immediate distress. But with all the issues facing the stock, I still see no reason to buy.
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